2010 Census: South and West Advance (Without California)

For a hundred years, Americans have been moving south and west. This, with an occasional hiccup, has continued, according to the 2010 Census.

During the 2000s, 84 percent of the nation's population growth was in the states of the South and West (see Census region and division map below), while growth has been far slower in the Northeast and Midwest. This follows a pattern now four decades old, in which more than 75 percent of the nation's population growth has been in the South and West. Indeed in every census period since the 1920s the South and West attracted a majority of the population growth.

In the first census after World War II, in 1950, the East and the Midwest accounted for 58 percent of the nation's population, with the South and West making up 42 percent. Since that time, the East and the Midwest have added less than 40 million people, while the South and West added nearly 120 million. Today, the ratios are nearly reversed, with 60 percent of the population living in the South and West and only 40 percent in the East and Midwest.

The dominance of the South and West was overwhelming. The 24 fastest growing states were all in the South and West. The fastest growing state outside the West and South, surprisingly, was South Dakota, which added a second decade of unprecedented growth, after having gained almost no population between 1930 and 1990.

Fastest and Slowest Growing States: The fastest growing states were the adjacent Mountain states of Nevada (35.1%), Arizona (24.6%), Utah (23.8%) and Idaho (21.1%). The only large state among the top five growing states was Texas, at 20.1%. These all greatly exceeded the national average growth rate of 9.7%

Michigan was the only state to lose population (-0.6%) and became the first state in American history to ever exceed 10 million population (earlier in the decade) and then to fall back below that figure. Rhode Island grew only 0.4%. Louisiana grew only 1.4%, which in itself is an accomplishment given the 5 % loss that occurred between 2005 and 2006 after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Ohio ranked fourth lowest, gaining only 1.6%. New York continued its laggard performance, gaining only 2.1%. Since the late 1960s, New York (long the largest state) has added little more than one million people, while California added 19 million and has nearly doubled New York's population.

California: But all was not well in California. In every 10 year period after the 1920s, California added more people than any other state, until now. Between 2000 and 2010, Texas added 4.1 million people, nearly one million more than California.

In no decade following the Depression (1930s) has California added so few new residents as in the 2000s. In the 1940s, California's population rose by 3.7 million, starting from a 1940 base of 6.9 million. During the 2000s, the population increase was 3.4 million, on a 2000 base of 33.8 million.

California still grew little faster than the national rate (10.0 percent compared to 9.7 percent). Yet this remains the lowest population growth rate for the state since its first Census, in 1850.

Regional Analysis: The data, both state and regional, that is the basis of the regional analysis below is shown in Tables 1 and 2.

The South: The South has had the largest share of the nation's population since the 1940 census and it is now home to nearly 115 million people. The growth has been substantial, with 73 million new residents from 1950 to 2010, expanding 143%, more than twice the national growth rate of 104%. Overall, the South led national growth in the last decade, with a 14.3% rate and adding 14.2 million people. After Texas, the fastest growing states were North Carolina (18.5%), Georgia (18.3%) and Florida (17.6%), which had seen its growth reduced during the housing collapse. South Carolina (15.3%) also grew strongly. Outside of Louisiana, the slowest growth was in West Virginia (2.5%) and Mississippi (4.3%).

The West: Since 1950, the West has added 58 million people, growing 256%. The West grew the second fastest among the regions, at 13.8% and added 8.7 million residents. As noted above, four of the five fastest growing states were in the Mountain West. In addition, Colorado grew 16.9%.

The Midwest: Until the emergence of the South in 1940, the Midwest had been the nation's largest region. Growth has been very slow. Since 1950, the Midwest has added 22.5 million people, but grown only 50 percent, or one-half the national rate of 104 percent. The Midwest had no states that grew above the national rate and had two of the states with the least growth (Michigan and Ohio). Perhaps signaling the rise of the upper Midwest, both North and South Dakota are growing faster than many Eastern or Midwestern states. After decades of population loss, South Dakota experienced unusual growth for the second decade in a row, while North Dakota, grew enough this decade to recover from decades of population loss dating to 1930.

The Northeast: The nation's former commercial heartland, the Northeast, has for its third census placed as the nation's least populated region. A prediction in 1950 that the region housing New York, Philadelphia and Boston would fall so much in relative terms would have been considered absurd. Yet, from 1950 to 2010, the region added 16 million people, for the lowest regional growth rate (40%). The region added less than 2,000,000 population between 2000 and 2010, for a growth rate of 3.2%. The fastest growing state was New Hampshire, at 6.5%, reflecting the growth of its Boston suburbs and exurbs. All other states had growth rates less than one-half of the national rate.

"Kudos" to the Bureau of the Census: Finally, congratulations are due the Bureau of the Census. In 2000, the Bureau was embarrassed by its under-estimation of the population during the previous decade. At the 1990 to 1999 estimation rate, the 2000 population would have been nearly 7,000,000 below the number of people actually counted in the census. The improvement during the decade of the 2000s was substantial. At the 2000 to 2009 estimate rate, the nation would have had 500,000 more people than were counted in 2010. Missing by less than 0.2 percent is pretty impressive.

Table 1
Regional Population: 1950-2010 (Census)

Division/REGION	1950	1960	1970	1980	1990	2000	2010

New England	9,314,453	10,509,367	11,841,663	12,348,493	13,206,943	13,922,517	14,444,865
Middle Atlantic	30,163,533	34,168,452	37,199,040	36,786,790	37,602,286	39,671,861	40,872,375
NORTHEAST	39,477,986	44,677,819	49,040,703	49,135,283	50,809,229	53,594,378	55,317,240

East North Central	30,399,368	36,225,024	40,252,476	41,682,217	42,008,942	45,155,037	46,421,564
West North Central	14,061,394	15,394,115	16,319,187	17,183,453	17,659,690	19,237,739	20,505,437
MIDWEST	44,460,762	51,619,139	56,571,663	58,865,670	59,668,632	64,392,776	66,927,001

NORTHEAST & MIDWEST	83,938,748	96,296,958	105,612,366	108,000,953	110,477,861	117,987,154	122,244,241

Southeast	21,182,335	25,971,732	30,671,337	36,959,123	43,566,853	51,769,160	59,777,037
East South Central	11,477,181	12,050,126	12,803,470	14,666,423	15,176,284	17,022,810	18,432,505
West South Central	14,537,572	16,951,255	19,320,560	23,746,816	26,702,793	31,444,850	36,346,202
SOUTH	47,197,088	54,973,113	62,795,367	75,372,362	85,445,930	100,236,820	114,555,744

Mountain	5,074,998	6,855,060	8,281,562	11,372,785	13,658,776	18,172,295	22,065,451
Pacific	15,114,964	21,198,044	26,522,631	31,799,705	39,127,306	45,025,637	49,880,102
WEST	20,189,962	28,053,104	34,804,193	43,172,490	52,786,082	63,197,932	71,945,553

SOUTH & WEST	67,387,050	83,026,217	97,599,560	118,544,852	138,232,012	163,434,752	186,501,297

UNITED STATES	151,325,798	179,323,175	203,211,926	226,545,805	248,709,873	281,421,906	308,745,538

Table 2
States and DC: Population 1950-2010 (Census)

State	1950	1960	1970	1980	1990	2000	2010

Alabama	3,061,743	3,266,740	3,444,165	3,893,888	4,040,587	4,447,100	4,779,736
Alaska	128,643	226,167	300,382	401,851	550,043	626,932	710,231
Arizona	749,587	1,302,161	1,770,900	2,718,215	3,665,228	5,130,632	6,392,017
Arkansas	1,909,511	1,786,272	1,923,295	2,286,435	2,350,725	2,673,400	2,915,918
California	10,586,223	15,717,204	19,953,134	23,667,902	29,760,021	33,871,648	37,253,956
Colorado	1,325,089	1,753,947	2,207,259	2,889,964	3,294,394	4,301,261	5,029,196
Connecticut	2,007,280	2,535,234	3,031,709	3,107,576	3,287,116	3,405,565	3,574,097
Delaware	318,085	446,292	548,104	594,338	666,168	783,600	897,934
District of Columbia	802,178	763,956	756,510	638,333	606,900	572,059	601,723
Florida	2,771,305	4,951,560	6,789,443	9,746,324	12,937,926	15,982,378	18,801,310
Georgia	3,444,578	3,943,116	4,589,575	5,463,105	6,478,216	8,186,453	9,687,653
Hawaii	499,794	632,772	768,561	964,691	1,108,229	1,211,537	1,360,301
Idaho	588,637	667,191	712,567	943,935	1,006,749	1,293,953	1,567,582
Illinois	8,712,176	10,081,158	11,113,976	11,426,518	11,430,602	12,419,293	12,830,632
Indiana	3,934,224	4,662,498	5,193,669	5,490,224	5,544,159	6,080,485	6,483,802
Iowa	2,621,073	2,757,537	2,824,376	2,913,808	2,776,755	2,926,324	3,046,355
Kansas	1,905,299	2,178,611	2,246,578	2,363,679	2,477,574	2,688,418	2,853,118
Kentucky	2,944,806	3,038,156	3,218,706	3,660,777	3,685,296	4,041,769	4,339,367
Louisiana	2,683,516	3,257,022	3,641,306	4,205,900	4,219,973	4,468,976	4,533,372
Maine	913,774	969,265	992,048	1,124,660	1,227,928	1,274,923	1,328,361
Maryland	2,343,001	3,100,689	3,922,399	4,216,975	4,781,468	5,296,486	5,773,552
Massachusetts	4,690,514	5,148,578	5,689,170	5,737,037	6,016,425	6,349,097	6,547,629
Michigan	6,371,766	7,823,194	8,875,083	9,262,078	9,295,297	9,938,444	9,883,640
Minnesota	2,982,483	3,413,864	3,804,971	4,075,970	4,375,099	4,919,479	5,303,925
Mississippi	2,178,914	2,178,141	2,216,912	2,520,638	2,573,216	2,844,658	2,967,297
Missouri	3,954,653	4,319,813	4,676,501	4,916,686	5,117,073	5,595,211	5,988,927
Montana	591,024	674,767	694,409	786,690	799,065	902,195	989,415
Nebraska	1,325,510	1,411,330	1,483,493	1,569,825	1,578,385	1,711,263	1,826,341
Nevada	160,083	285,278	488,738	800,493	1,201,833	1,998,257	2,700,551
New Hampshire	533,242	606,921	737,681	920,610	1,109,252	1,235,786	1,316,470
New Jersey	4,835,329	6,066,782	7,168,164	7,364,823	7,730,188	8,414,350	8,791,894
New Mexico	681,187	951,023	1,016,000	1,302,894	1,515,069	1,819,046	2,059,179
New York	14,830,192	16,782,304	18,236,967	17,558,072	17,990,455	18,976,457	19,378,102
North Carolina	4,061,929	4,556,155	5,082,059	5,881,766	6,628,637	8,049,313	9,535,483
North Dakota	619,636	632,446	617,761	652,717	638,800	642,200	672,591
Ohio	7,946,627	9,706,397	10,652,017	10,797,630	10,847,115	11,353,140	11,536,504
Oklahoma	2,233,351	2,328,284	2,559,229	3,025,290	3,145,585	3,450,654	3,751,351
Oregon	1,521,341	1,768,687	2,091,385	2,633,105	2,842,321	3,421,399	3,831,074
Pennsylvania	10,498,012	11,319,366	11,793,909	11,863,895	11,881,643	12,281,054	12,702,379
Rhode Island	791,896	859,488	946,725	947,154	1,003,464	1,048,319	1,052,567
South Carolina	2,117,027	2,382,594	2,590,516	3,121,820	3,486,703	4,012,012	4,625,364
South Dakota	652,740	680,514	665,507	690,768	696,004	754,844	814,180
Tennessee	3,291,718	3,567,089	3,923,687	4,591,120	4,877,185	5,689,283	6,346,105
Texas	7,711,194	9,579,677	11,196,730	14,229,191	16,986,510	20,851,820	25,145,561
Utah	688,862	890,627	1,059,273	1,461,037	1,722,850	2,233,169	2,763,885
Vermont	377,747	389,881	444,330	511,456	562,758	608,827	625,741
Virginia	3,318,680	3,966,949	4,648,494	5,346,818	6,187,358	7,078,515	8,001,024
Washington	2,378,963	2,853,214	3,409,169	4,132,156	4,866,692	5,894,121	6,724,540
West Virginia	2,005,552	1,860,421	1,744,237	1,949,644	1,793,477	1,808,344	1,852,994
Wisconsin	3,434,575	3,951,777	4,417,731	4,705,767	4,891,769	5,363,675	5,686,986
Wyoming	290,529	330,066	332,416	469,557	453,588	493,782	563,626

United States	151,325,798	179,323,175	203,211,926	226,545,805	248,709,873	281,421,906	308,745,538

Wendell Cox is a Visiting Professor, Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers, Paris and the author of ?War on the Dream: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life?

Photo by Travelin' Librarian - Michael Sauers