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Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Japan may face debt rating cut, Moody's warns

Bond rating firm Moody?s Investors Service formally warned Japan on Tuesday that its rating might be cut as the country sinks deeper into debt.


Moody?s said it put Japan?s Aa2 rating on review for a possible downgrade, citing in part ?much larger than initially expected economic and fiscal costs of the March 11 earthquake.?


Japan-flag On Friday, Moody?s rival Fitch Ratings changed its outlook for Japan?s rating to ?negative? from ?stable.? Standard & Poor's cut its rating to AA-minus from AA in January, the first reduction in nine years, then warned in April that the rating could drop further.


Japan lost its Aaa top rating from Moody?s in 1998, eight years into the country?s struggle to revive its economy after the real estate and stock market crashes of the early 1990s. The rating fell to A2 in 2002 before upgrades over the last few years.


Japan?s debt has ballooned since 1990 as the government has spent massively in an attempt to jump-start growth. Now, the repair and rebuilding costs from the March earthquake, tidal wave and nuclear crisis are fueling another wave of borrowing.


From Moody?s:



Large deficits and the collapse of growth since the early 1990s have led to an overhang of government debt that is by far the largest among the major advanced economies -- whether projected at 226% of GDP by the IMF, or at 174% of GDP by the Cabinet Office for 2010 (accounting practices explain the difference). Moreover, both sources project an inexorable rise in debt over the long term under current policy and growth assumptions.



Yields on Japanese government bonds were little changed Tuesday. The 10-year bond yield was 1.16%, down from a 2011 high of 1.35% on Feb. 16. U.S. 10-year Treasury notes, by contrast, pay 3.07%.


Japan?s interest rates still are the lowest in the world, in large part because the government?s debt mostly is purchased by Japanese investors. Unlike the U.S., Japan isn?t dependent on foreigners to fund a significant chunk of its debt.


Still, Moody?s worries that the day will come when Japan?s own investors will be unwilling to extend more credit to their government -- something hedge fund manager Kyle Bass has been insisting is not that far off.


Japan?s ?large refinancing needs introduce a susceptibility to a credit market tipping point, which could lead to an abrupt fall in [bond] prices and a rise in yields, which would in turn result in downward rating pressures,? Moody?s warned.


-- Tom Petruno




Full story at http://feeds.latimes.com/~r/MoneyCompany/~3/MThxn8owxHE/japan-moodys-debt-rating-warning-downgrade-earthquake-tsunami.html

The Problem With Christine Lagarde

A

Full story at http://baselinescenario.com/2011/05/26/the-problem-with-christine-lagarde/

Health Care Rationing for Beginners

A

Full story at http://baselinescenario.com/2011/05/29/health-care-rationing-for-beginners/

Burberry Shares Leap on Sales Update

BurberryShares in British luxury goods company Burberry Group PLC jumped Tuesday after the company reported strong second-half sales and predicted a full-year profit at the top end of market forecasts.



Burberry's popularity in the Asia Pacific region, particularly Hong Kong and Taiwan, led sales 33 percent higher in the six months to March 31, compared to a year earlier.



Chief Executive Angela Ahrendts said the company expects full-year pretax profit to be at the top end of market forecasts, or around 347 million pounds ($564 million).



"While the luxury industry faces global challenges in the year ahead, we remain confident in our team's ability to outperform, underpinned by the consistent execution of our key strategies," said Ahrendts in a trading update.

Continue reading Burberry Shares Leap on Sales Update

Burberry Shares Leap on Sales Update originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 19 Apr 2011 08:04:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Johnson & Johnson's Income Falls 23%

Health care giant Johnson & Johnson says sales rebounded but its profit dropped 23 percent in the first quarter, due to higher expenses, costs of recalls and litigation and a tax gain that boosted results a year ago.



Adjusted earnings topped expectations. J&J also raised its full-year earnings outlook.



The maker of Band-Aids, baby shampoo and birth control pills posted net income of $3.48 billion, or $1.25 per share, down from $4.53 billion, or $1.62 per share, in 2010's first quarter.



But after two years of declines, revenue rose by 3.5 percent to $16.17 billion.



Adjusted income was $4.86 billion, or $1.35 per share. Analysts expected earnings of $1.03 per share and revenue of $15.6 billion.

Johnson & Johnson's Income Falls 23% originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 19 Apr 2011 08:22:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Goldman Earnings Sink After Buffett Dividend

goldman sachsGoldman Sachs' first-quarter income fell 72 percent after the bank paid $1.64 billion in dividends to redeem preferred shares it issued to billionaire investor Warren Buffett during the financial crisis.



The New York investment bank said Tuesday that it earned $908 million, or $1.56 per share, compared with $3.3 billion, or $5.59 a share in the first quarter of last year.



Excluding the dividend payment, earnings per common share were $4.38, beating the $3.95 per share forecast of analysts surveyed by FactSet.



Revenue fell 7 percent to $11.9 billion on weakness in the bank's core businesses of trading stocks and bonds and advising clients. Goldman's stock fell 0.9 percent to $152.38 in late morning trading.



The Federal Reserve gave Goldman Sachs Group Inc. permission to repay Berkshire Hathaway last month. While the Fed's decision wasn't a surprise given Goldman's ever-widening profits since the financial crisis, it reflected how far Goldman and other major banks have progressed from the darkest days of September 2008.

Continue reading Goldman Earnings Sink After Buffett Dividend

Goldman Earnings Sink After Buffett Dividend originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 19 Apr 2011 09:03:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Suddenly, The "Unthinkable" Debt Ceiling Solution Is Becoming Mainstream




Washington DC

It was just in early April that were shocked to hear Chris Whalen argue for an intentional technical default on US debt.


At the time this seemed like an obviously out-there viewpoint, but in just a matter of weeks, the Whalen view has moved a lot closer to the mainstream.


Just a quick rundown of some others on this bandwagon:



And those are just some very notable names.


This shift was acknowledged in a note this morning from Citi's Steven Englander:


A breach of the credit ceiling is priced in neither fixed income nor FX markets to any significant degree now. Even two months ago there was a virtual consensus that a debt ceiling breach would be an unmitigated disaster for US asset markets. Confidence in Treasuries as the ultimate safe haven would be destroyed and there would very likely be spillovers into other asset markets. If investors or business were counting on using coupons or redemptions to meet obligations, there would also be the possibility of a series of business or investors defaults tied to delayed Treasury payments.


The revisionist view is that a breach of the debt ceiling would magnificently concentrate the minds of Congress and the Administration to reach a speedy deal on longer-term fiscal consolidation. In this view, if brinksmanship or even a few days delay in receiving a payment were the cost of long-term reform, it would be worth it. Longer-term attractiveness of Treasuries might even be enhanced if the deficit were put on a sustainable course.


What was previously way out of left field has come closer to the mainstream -- a big problem for Tim Geithner, who has called a default "unthinkable".


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Full story at http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/businessinsider/~3/3v949Dani7o/more-people-are-open-to-technical-default-in-the-debt-ceiling-fight-2011-5

All Targets Missed




Mercenary Links roundup for Monday, May 30th (below the jump).


05-30 Monday



Inspectors say Greece missed all fiscal targets: magazine | Reuters

Greece should restructure now. – Barrons.com



Greece set for severe bail-out conditions

Greeks vent anger at entire political class – Yahoo! News

Greece: Markets Fret About Euro ‘Slow-Motion Car Crash’ – CNBC

Germany Weighs Shift to End Impasse Over Greek Bailout – WSJ.com

Greek Contagion Danger Climbs – WSJ.com



US banks: big picture is not pretty

Mortgage Deal Leaves Bank Investors Guessing – WSJ.com



Pensions Leap Back Into Hedge Funds – WSJ.com

Funds Revive Agriculture Bets as Drought, Floods Hurt Crops, Demand Grows



May?s swoon disconcerts investors

Slowdown in Growth Is Becoming a Concern – WSJ.com

Why Are Investors Still Lining Up for Bonds? – NYTimes.com



Dollar Bears Cut Bets Most Since December – Bloomberg

New Zealand dollar hits record high

Talk of fresh Greece bail-out lifts euro

Euro: franc view of a troubled currency



Global macro: trading that is not for the timid

Avoiding Losses Is One of the Keys to Managing Money



Robert Rodriguez: We will have another crisis… – May. 17, 2011

Nervous investors demand bigger returns | Reuters

Apple at $500 and other predictions from a market bull – May. 27, 2011



Case-Shiller Index Expected to Show New Low in House Prices

Greenwich?s Priciest Homes Accumulate on the Market – Bloomberg



Oil Epicenter’s Sway on Prices Begins to Slip – WSJ.com

Oil in Shale Sets Off a Boom in Texas – NYTimes.com



Weather Hinders U.S. Wheat Plantings – WSJ.com

Peak coffee: A cup of trouble – The Globe and Mail



In Japan, a Culture That Promotes Nuclear Dependency – NYTimes.com

Japan Risks Chernobyl-Like ?Dead Zone? as Fukushima Soil Radiation Soars



Germany to Forsake Its Nuclear Reactors – WSJ.com

Germany to scrap nuclear power by 2022



New York Start-Ups Ride Tech Boom – WSJ.com



China?s Economy Slows, but Threat of Inflation Still Looms – NYTimes.com

Japan recovery takes hold, but debt downgrade looms | Reuters

South Korea Probes Foreign Banks – WSJ.com



India’s Economy Grew 7.8 Percent in January-March Quarter

India economy grows at slowest pace in five quarters | Reuters

Russia Surprises With Rate Move – WSJ.com

Canada’s GDP Expands 3.9% – WSJ.com



German Retail Sales Rise – WSJ.com

French Consumer Spending Falls Sharply – WSJ.com



Utah Law Encourages Gold and Silver Coin Use – NYTimes.com



Panoramas of Joplin Before and After the Tornado – Interactive Feature

Earthquake caused boom in N.E. Philly – Philly.com

2011 Memorial Day in Tahoe: Shrinking beaches, snow-covered trails



Pentagon: Online Cyber Attacks Can Count as Acts of War – WSJ.com

Lockheed, PBS Join Roster of Hacking Victims – WSJ.com



Consumer PC sales growth declines for first time ever: iPad the culprit?

Are Our Lives Vanishing Into the Cloud? – Adam Silver – Life – The Atlantic



Clinton Gets Cold Reception in Pakistan – WSJ.com

Saudi Bid to Curb Iran Worries U.S. – WSJ.com

In Censorship Move, Iran Plans Its Own, Private Internet – WSJ.com

Islamists Seize Yemeni City, Stoking Fears – NYTimes.com



Al-Jazeera footage captures ‘western troops on the ground’ in Libya

Libya rebels running out of crude stocks

Goldman traded $1.3 billion in Libyan funds: report | Reuters



Drug Trade Flourishes in Spanish Port Town – NYTimes.com

800 tons of fish die, rot on Philippine fish farms – CTV News

The Optimism Bias – TIME

~


~




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Full story at http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/businessinsider/~3/YItgZEmJAmg/all-targets-missed-2011-5



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