CMBS Delinquencies Hit New Record

Here are some charts and commentary from the Realpoint Research Monthly Delinquency Report for January 2010.

In January 2010, the delinquent unpaid balance for CMBS increased by another $4.3 billion, up to $45.94 billion from $41.64 billion a month prior. The overall delinquent unpaid balance is up 326% from one-year ago (when only $10.79 billion of delinquent unpaid balance was reported for January 2009), and is now over 20 times the low point of $2.21 billion in March 2007. The distressed 90+-day, Foreclosure and REO categories grew in aggregate for the 25th straight month ? up by $7.42 billion (28%) from the previous month and over $27.95 billion (508%) in the past year (up from only $5.51 billion in January 2009). This included a substantial jump in 90+-day delinquency in January 2010.

click on any chart for sharper image

CMBS Delinquency Amounts

CMBS Delinquency Percentages

All deals seasoned at least a year have a total unpaid balance of $789.07 billion, with $45.94 billion delinquent ? a 5.82% rate (up from only 3.15% six months prior).

Geography

The top three states ranked by delinquency exposure have remained consistent since January 2009, as California, Florida, and Texas collectively accounted for 30% of delinquency through January 2010.
The 10 largest states by delinquent unpaid balance reflect 57% of CMBS delinquency, while the 10 largest states by overall CMBS exposure reflect 52% of the CMBS universe.
The state of California remains a major concern at near 13% of CMBS delinquency. By MSA, however, such delinquency is concentrated in the Los Angeles, Riverside-San Bernardino, and Orange County MSAs highlighted below.
While by state delinquency exposure Florida ranks second, no Florida MSA is found in the Top 10 MSA?s ranked by delinquency exposure (highest being Miami, which ranked 14th in our data).
Notably, over 10% of total CMBS exposure in the states of Florida, Arizona, Nevada and Michigan are delinquent, with the Phoenix, AZ and Las Vegas, NV MSAs accounting for the top 2 by delinquency exposure at (14% and 14.5% of the MSAs, respectively).
Credit also appears to be deteriorating further in the Riverside-San Bernardino, CA MSA, as over 11% of the total MSA exposure was reported delinquent through January 2010.
Texas delinquency is highly concentrated within the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston MSAs.
Only one MSA topped 4% of CMBS delinquency in January 2010, consistent with the prior month.
The 10 largest MSAs by delinquent unpaid balance reflect 30% of CMBS delinquency, while the 10 largest MSAs by overall CMBS exposure reflect 34% of the CMBS universe.

Realpoint estimates delinquencies will hit 8.6% by June 2010 and that "Balloon default risk is growing rapidly from highly seasoned CMBS transactions as loans are unable to payoff as scheduled." There is much more in the 15 page PDF.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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