Economic Folk | Business News, Real Estate and Stock Market: April 2010

Shanghai stock market slumps 7.7% in April on fears over government curbs on real estate

China?s stock investors must have been happy to see April end on Friday: For the month the Shanghai market tumbled 7.7%, making it one of the world's worst performers for the period.

The Shanghai composite index inched up less than 0.1% on Friday, to 2,870.61, after an
afternoon rally helped snap a six-day string of losing sessions. It's down 12.4% year to date, also ranking among the world's biggest decliners in 2010.

Analysts pointed to investor fears that new government regulation aimed at curbing property speculation would significantly weaken economic growth, which in any case has been expected to slow from the torrid 11.9% pace of the first quarter.

To tame China?s runaway real estate prices -- which rose by a record 11.7% in March as measured by an index that tracks residential and commercial properties -- lawmakers early in April raised minimum down payments on second homes by 25%, gave banks new powers to restrict lending to speculators and beefed-up residency requirements for home purchases.

Property developers, whose shares have taken some of the biggest losses in recent days, are being scrutinized more and now have to report their capital funding to authorities.

The government has been motivated to crack down in part because of concerns over a rise in troubled loans and increasing social discontent over access to affordable housing. The Ministry of Land and Resources announced April 15 that it would more than double the land supply for residential development this year to ease the affordability problem.

Nervous investors have focused on the potential for other policy moves that would slow the real estate market, including a further tightening of credit and the possibility that the government would introduce U.S.-style property taxes.

-- David Pierson, reporting from Beijing

Photo: An apartment building under construction in Beijing. Credit: Liu Jin / AFP / Getty Images

Full story at http://feeds.latimes.com/~r/MoneyCompany/~3/zy_059W3m7k/china-stocks-slump-real-estate-shanghai-loans.html

Stock, bond, and currency markets around the world have been jolted by the lingering Greek debt crisis and the threat of contagion: possible defaults by other European Union countries.

European Union and International Monetary Union officials, initially behind-the-curve, now appear to be moving with speed to put out the financial fire, but a climate of uncertainty hangs over the markets: the crisis has by no means been resolved yet.

Continue reading Is the Oil Market Signaling a Resolution to Greek Debt Crisis?

Is the Oil Market Signaling a Resolution to Greek Debt Crisis? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 29 Apr 2010 16:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Burger King: Decent Q3, But Sector Concerns Persist

Filed under: Burger King Hldgs (BKC)

At least initially, investors were impressed by hamburger chain Burger King's (BKC) beat of Wall Street's third quarter earnings estimate, 30 cents compared to the First Call estimate of 29 cents, with its shares jumping 3.5% to $21.41 on Thursday at mid-day.

Further, investors appeared to cut Burger King some slack, as the winter quarter's severe weather artificially depressed traffic. Chief Executive Officer John Chidsey said sales increased in March and were slightly higher in April, although they were still lower compared to a year ago. Burger King earned 34 cents in the third quarter of fiscal 2009.

Otherwise, the problematic restaurant revenue trend continued at BKC. Worldwide, same store sales declined 3.7% in the third quarter, including a 6.7% decline in the large U.S./Canada market. Worldwide restaurant margins dipped to 11.3% from 11.7% a year ago.

Continue reading Burger King: Decent Q3, But Sector Concerns Persist

Burger King: Decent Q3, But Sector Concerns Persist originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 29 Apr 2010 17:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Frontline's Stock Finally Enters Smoother Waters

Filed under: Stocks to Buy

Shipping leaser Frontline Ltd. (FRO) which I first wrote about on April 28, 2009 at a price of $19.17, has finally entered smoother waters. And it's about time.

Dayrates for the company's very large crude tankers (VLCCs) and Suezmax tankers rose to $33,200 and $21,300 in the fourth quarter, respectively.

Further, the calculation here is that 2010 global GDP growth with be sufficient to maintain an adequate-to-high oil price of $60-80 per barrel. That should be enough to keep tanker dayrates firm. The economic bears argue sluggish GDP growth will weigh on oil demand, depressing oil's price, and thus reduce demand for tankers. As they say in The Bronx, N.Y., we'll believe it when we see it, hence the risk/return remains tipped in favor of an FRO position.

Continue reading Frontline's Stock Finally Enters Smoother Waters

Frontline's Stock Finally Enters Smoother Waters originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 29 Apr 2010 18:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Another Massive Sign Of Complacency: High-Yield Spreads Now Back To Pre-Crisis Levels

(This guest post previously appeared at The Pragmatic Capitalist)

Signs of complacency continue to pop up all over the place. In addition to the continuing market troubles in China, the very high bullish sentiment and the troubles in Europe the bulls just continue to pile head first into high risk assets. This is perhaps no more apparent than it is in the surge in the Merrill Lynch High Yield Index. As of yesterday, high yield bonds traded at just under par at 99.47. The high yield market hasn’t traded at this level since the Summer of 2007 just before the markets began to unravel.

chart

Of course, there are two ways to view this:

1) You believe this is a sign of high investor risk appetite based on the vastly improved economic conditions. You also believe the credit markets are very healthy.

OR

2) You view this as a sign of high investor complacency and overconfidence as the credit woes at the consumer level, corporate level and sovereign level remain far from resolved.

Source: Merrill Lynch

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The Winners And Losers Of May Sweeps

alec baldwin emmy 2009

It's May sweeps time!

It's May sweeps time, that four-week end-of-season stretch when all the networks try to boost their ratings and woo advertisers by rolling out the best and biggest episodes their series have to offer.

With ad dollars on the line, networks are pulling out all the stops: Oscar-winning guest stars, unexpected deaths, cliffhangers and crazy plot twists will all be used to give the ratings a final end-of-season push.

Click through to see the winners and losers of May sweeps week >

See Also:

Winner: NBC

NBC has a full-line up of guest appearances in May. Matt Damon is reportedly set to guest star in one of "30's Rock's" final episodes of the season. And Law and Order is ending on on a high note, too, with Olympic Gold Medal winner Lindsey Vonn.

Winner: Fox

Fox's "Glee" has been killing it in the ratings, and with an upcoming guest appearance by Time 100 inductee Neil Patrick Harris, we're guessing the season will go out with a bang.

Loser: ABC

ABC was the only network to lose viewers this season. Sure, it's ratings got a boost from its newest series, "Modern Family." But the network's long-time hit, "Desperate Housewives," lost 12% of its viewers.

Winner: DVR

With digital video recorders now in 36% of homes and the number of young people watching their favorite shows in real time decreasing, DVR is huge. Just ask anyone who will be setting theirs accordingly on May 23 to record the series finale of "Lost." It's the ultimate in May sweeps! Although there is a loser involved here because of DVR...

Loser: Ratings

No matter how successful their May sweeps roster, the networks still have to worry about shedding viewers. As this USAToday article points out, overall TV usage is down 2.6%, and viewership among women ages 18 to 34 is down 6% from last year. If these declines continue, "it could result the first full season of reduced viewing in recent history."

Winner: ESPN And Other Sports Broadcasters

Not everyone is tuning into scripted television. May sweeps begins at the same time some viewers are settling into the baseball season and the NBA and NHL finals come to a close. And sports ratings are up from recent years. Channels like ESPN and other sports networks are going to take those viewers.