Saturday, October 31, 2009
However, the financial and economic crisis that has slowed New York's economy, surprisingly, has not resulted the loss of one city title -- that of financial capital of the world. 29% of respondents to a survey listed the city as the leading global financial center, with the city that never sleeps topping both Singapore, 17%, and London, 16%, according to a Bloomberg Global Poll. The poll of 1,452 Bloomberg subscribers was conducted October 23-27.Permalink | Email this | Comments
Investors can immerse themselves in data on consumer spending, retail sales, new home sales, auto sales, and factory output etc., and all of those provide clues, no question. But if you're time-pressed and you want one metric to gauge the U.S. economy's likely health 6-9 months from now, monitor: monthly non-farm payrolls, as tallied by the U.S. Labor Department. I.E., how many jobs the U.S. economy lost or created in the previous month.Permalink | Email this | Comments
Have you seen sports ratings lately?
Just this week:
The NBA on TNT had its highest ratings in TWENTY SIX YEARS . Versus had its highest rated regular season NHL game EVER. The first game of the World Series was the highest rated in 5 years. The NFL was setting records on cable and achieving viewing levels not seen in TWENTY YEARS !. College Football ratings are killing it as well.
But wait there is more. TV viewing is up considerably in each of the last several years. We can even look at the box office for movies and the fact that the industry is seeing a theatrical revival.
The question is simple. Whats going on ?
The answer is simple as well.
The internet has trained us.
It has trained us to assign two distinct values to content that is available to us, regardless of media. The 1st variable is participation value. The 2nd variable is shelf life. The two variables go hand in hand.
Every type of content has some quotient of participation value. At the bottom of the spectrum are games/shows/movies/events that you watch or attend by yourself, and you have no interest in telling anyone about. Those shows have zero participation value. They could be Perry Mason reruns (happened to catch one while I was working out on the road) or shows you watch when you have nothing better to do.
At the top of the scale are games/shows/movies/events that potential viewers have predicted to have high participation value. These are events that we look forward to not only watching or attending, but that we plan in advance how we are going to extend our participation. We may plan on tweeting about it or posting a facebook update because we know our friends are there and we are bragging to each other, while at the same time showing off to friends who cant be there. Think going to the opening of Cowboys stadium, or going to a concert or opening night of a movie, or watching the big game.
The Securities and Exchange Commission filed a civil suit against a former top executive of an activist San Francisco hedge fund and six others charging them with insider trading, saying they made more than $8 million trading on stocks based partly on information the executive learned on the job.
The executive, Ronald Yee, was the chief financial officer of ValueAct Capital, a firm known for taking big stakes in companies and becoming involved in their management, the firm said. ValueAct is run by former Fidelity Investments fund manager Jeffrey Ubben, who is best known for being the second-biggest shareholder and becoming chairman of Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia Inc. after the company's namesake founder was indicted on charges related to insider trading.
- Watch How Arrogant SEC Employees Dismissed Harry Markopolos
- SEC Makes MASSIVE Friday-Afternoon News Dump Of Madoff Documents
That is a good question. Not that we can believe the reported number of jobs created, but let's assume for the sake of argument that the figures provided by the administration are correct.
White House Hails Stimulus Jobs
The Financial Times is reporting White House hails 650,000 stimulus jobs.
The US economic stimulus programme has directly created or saved 640,000 jobs so far, the White House said on Friday as it battled to find ways to show that its $787bn package was working, despite persistently high unemployment.Bear in mind it is impossible to prove how many jobs were created and it is beyond preposterous to think one can estimate the number of jobs saved.
Data this week showed that the US economy had started to grow again but the Obama administration has faced rising criticism that it wasted taxpayers' money on the stimulus.
The White House tried to counter this by championing the jobs figures and even uploading videos to its website showing the dollars in action. The figures showed around half of the jobs were in education and 12.5 per cent were in construction.
"These reports are strong confirmation that?we are on-track to create and save 3.5m jobs through the Recovery Act by the end of next year," said Joe Biden, vice president.
But criticism has mounted this week over the accuracy of some preliminary stimulus data released by the White House. Even the Economic Policy Institute, a left-leaning think-tank which has fervently supported the stimulus, said there were serious problems with the figures.
However, let's take the administration's estimates at face value.
Inquiring minds want the official numbers on which to base the cost per job created. So please consider the administration's own numbers as reported on Track The Money Recovery.Gov as of October 30, 2009.
Let's do the math.
Math To Date
Funds paid out so far = $83.8 billion + $52.1 billion + $71.4 billion = $207.3 billion
$207,300,000,000 / 640,329 = $323,739.83 per job created
Plan Goals Math
Now let's assume this stimulus package will eventually create (or save) 3.5 million jobs and all the money (but no more) will be spent.
Here's the math again.
$787,000,000,000 / 3,500,000 = $224,857.14 per job created
There is much more information on the site and a quick look at the projects shows many of them are for temporary jobs such as highway repair and weatherizing homes.
Amazingly, the White House is championing the above numbers. Apparently they forgot to do the math (or they are praying no one else will).
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
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